Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Friday 24 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 49754 (+2217) 878974 (+32282) 85624 (+1646) 743596 (+28419)
Italy 25549 (+464) 189973 (+2646) 57576 (+3033) 106848 (-851)
Spain 22157 (+440) 213024 (+4635) 89250 (+3335) 101617 (+860)
France 21856 (+516) 158183 (-1694) 42088 (+1431) 94239 (-3641)
United Kingdom 18738 (+638) 138078 (+4583) 0 (+0) 119340 (+3945)
Belgium 6490 (+228) 42797 (+908) 9800 (+367) 26507 (+313)
Germany 5575 (+296) 153129 (+2481) 103300 (+3900) 44254 (-1715)
Iran 5481 (+90) 87026 (+1030) 64843 (+1730) 16702 (-790)
China 4632 (+0) 82798 (+10) 77207 (+56) 959 (-46)
Netherlands 4177 (+123) 35729 (+887) 0 (+0) 31552 (+764)
Brazil 3313 (+407) 49492 (+3735) 26573 (+1255) 19606 (+2073)
Turkey 2491 (+115) 101790 (+3116) 18491 (+2014) 80808 (+987)
Canada 2147 (+173) 42110 (+1920) 14761 (+775) 25202 (+972)
Sweden 2021 (+84) 16755 (+751) 550 (+0) 14184 (+667)
Switzerland 1549 (+40) 28496 (+228) 20600 (+700) 6347 (-512)
Mexico 970 (+113) 10544 (+1043) 2627 (+0) 6947 (+930)
Portugal 820 (+35) 22353 (+371) 1201 (+58) 20332 (+278)
Ireland 794 (+25) 17607 (+936) 9233 (+0) 7580 (+911)
India 721 (+40) 23039 (+1669) 5012 (+642) 17306 (+987)
Indonesia 647 (+12) 7775 (+357) 960 (+47) 6168 (+298)
Peru 572 (+42) 20914 (+1664) 7422 (+395) 12920 (+1227)
Ecuador 560 (+23) 11183 (+333) 1328 (+66) 9295 (+244)
Russia 555 (+42) 62773 (+4774) 4891 (+471) 57327 (+4261)
Romania 545 (+21) 10096 (+386) 2478 (+72) 7073 (+293)
Austria 522 (+12) 15002 (+77) 11694 (+366) 2786 (-301)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 185765 (+6514) 2632197 (+81921) 667160 (+27621)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 186369 ( +4256) 2584150 ( +41468) 677728 ( +22213)
Sat 25 April 2020 190258 ( +3889) 2621755 ( +37605) 698413 ( +20685)
Sun 26 April 2020 193796 ( +3537) 2655745 ( +33990) 717554 ( +19141)
Mon 27 April 2020 197000 ( +3204) 2686376 ( +30631) 735163 ( +17609)
Tue 28 April 2020 199891 ( +2891) 2713906 ( +27530) 751276 ( +16113)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82798 (+10) 77207 (+56)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 3540 ( +0) 81426 ( +0) 76710 ( +6)
Sat 25 April 2020 3540 ( +0) 81426 ( +0) 76715 ( +5)
Sun 26 April 2020 3540 ( +0) 81426 ( +0) 76720 ( +4)
Mon 27 April 2020 3540 ( +0) 81426 ( +0) 76724 ( +4)
Tue 28 April 2020 3540 ( +0) 81426 ( +0) 76727 ( +3)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 22157 (+440) 213024 (+4635) 89250 (+3335)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 21250 ( +112) 202170 ( +1009) 84865 ( +738)
Sat 25 April 2020 21345 ( +95) 203041 ( +871) 85489 ( +624)
Sun 26 April 2020 21426 ( +81) 203793 ( +751) 86017 ( +527)
Mon 27 April 2020 21495 ( +69) 204440 ( +647) 86461 ( +444)
Tue 28 April 2020 21553 ( +58) 204996 ( +557) 86834 ( +374)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 25549 (+464) 189973 (+2646) 57576 (+3033)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 24450 ( +156) 181779 ( +927) 56499 ( +1630)
Sat 25 April 2020 24589 ( +138) 182604 ( +825) 58058 ( +1558)
Sun 26 April 2020 24711 ( +122) 183338 ( +734) 59542 ( +1484)
Mon 27 April 2020 24819 ( +108) 183991 ( +652) 60951 ( +1408)
Tue 28 April 2020 24914 ( +95) 184570 ( +579) 62282 ( +1332)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 18738 (+638) 138078 (+4583) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 18504 ( +341) 137700 ( +2813) 102 ( +1)
Sat 25 April 2020 18797 ( +293) 140220 ( +2520) 103 ( +1)
Sun 26 April 2020 19048 ( +251) 142466 ( +2246) 104 ( +1)
Mon 27 April 2020 19262 ( +214) 144461 ( +1994) 105 ( +1)
Tue 28 April 2020 19443 ( +181) 146225 ( +1764) 106 ( +1)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 49754 (+2217) 878974 (+32282) 85624 (+1646)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 51090 ( +1718) 855966 ( +13247) 92712 ( +4222)
Sat 25 April 2020 52633 ( +1544) 867650 ( +11684) 96638 ( +3926)
Sun 26 April 2020 54009 ( +1376) 877915 ( +10265) 100253 ( +3615)
Mon 27 April 2020 55226 ( +1217) 886903 ( +8988) 103552 ( +3299)
Tue 28 April 2020 56296 ( +1070) 894751 ( +7847) 106538 ( +2986)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 21856 (+516) 158183 (-1694) 42088 (+1431)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 21539 ( +246) 160724 ( +845) 51927 ( +3443)
Sat 25 April 2020 21749 ( +210) 161437 ( +713) 55615 ( +3688)
Sun 26 April 2020 21927 ( +178) 162037 ( +600) 59565 ( +3950)
Mon 27 April 2020 22077 ( +151) 162542 ( +505) 63795 ( +4230)
Tue 28 April 2020 22204 ( +127) 162967 ( +424) 68325 ( +4531)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 5575 (+296) 153129 (+2481) 103300 (+3900)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 5448 ( +115) 148044 ( +586) 101213 ( +1743)
Sat 25 April 2020 5550 ( +102) 148545 ( +501) 102725 ( +1512)
Sun 26 April 2020 5639 ( +90) 148974 ( +429) 104030 ( +1305)
Mon 27 April 2020 5718 ( +78) 149341 ( +366) 105152 ( +1122)
Tue 28 April 2020 5786 ( +68) 149653 ( +313) 106113 ( +961)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 4177 (+123) 35729 (+887) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 4032 ( +51) 35104 ( +449) 221 ( +0)
Sat 25 April 2020 4076 ( +44) 35508 ( +404) 221 ( +0)
Sun 26 April 2020 4115 ( +39) 35870 ( +362) 221 ( +0)
Mon 27 April 2020 4149 ( +34) 36195 ( +324) 221 ( +0)
Tue 28 April 2020 4178 ( +29) 36485 ( +290) 221 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 6490 (+228) 42797 (+908) 9800 (+367)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 6508 ( +125) 42190 ( +575) 9510 ( +127)
Sat 25 April 2020 6615 ( +107) 42703 ( +513) 9619 ( +110)
Sun 26 April 2020 6707 ( +91) 43158 ( +456) 9714 ( +94)
Mon 27 April 2020 6784 ( +78) 43562 ( +404) 9795 ( +81)
Tue 28 April 2020 6850 ( +65) 43919 ( +357) 9864 ( +69)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 2021 (+84) 16755 (+751) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 2015 ( +73) 16613 ( +391) 579 ( +6)
Sat 25 April 2020 2082 ( +67) 16980 ( +367) 584 ( +5)
Sun 26 April 2020 2143 ( +61) 17323 ( +343) 588 ( +4)
Mon 27 April 2020 2199 ( +56) 17642 ( +319) 591 ( +3)
Tue 28 April 2020 2249 ( +50) 17938 ( +296) 594 ( +3)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 454 (+28) 10511 (+342) 1740 (+227)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 443 ( +11) 10389 ( +191) 1817 ( +155)
Sat 25 April 2020 453 ( +10) 10561 ( +172) 1972 ( +155)
Sun 26 April 2020 461 ( +8) 10715 ( +154) 2124 ( +153)
Mon 27 April 2020 469 ( +7) 10852 ( +137) 2273 ( +148)
Tue 28 April 2020 475 ( +6) 10975 ( +122) 2415 ( +142)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 1549 (+40) 28496 (+228) 20600 (+700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 1504 ( +15) 27701 ( +61) 19750 ( +225)
Sat 25 April 2020 1516 ( +13) 27753 ( +52) 19939 ( +189)
Sun 26 April 2020 1527 ( +11) 27796 ( +44) 20096 ( +157)
Mon 27 April 2020 1537 ( +9) 27834 ( +37) 20227 ( +131)
Tue 28 April 2020 1545 ( +8) 27865 ( +32) 20336 ( +109)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 5481 (+90) 87026 (+1030) 64843 (+1730)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 24 April 2020 5299 ( +34) 86669 ( +707) 67896 ( +1793)
Sat 25 April 2020 5330 ( +31) 87310 ( +641) 69576 ( +1681)
Sun 26 April 2020 5358 ( +28) 87891 ( +581) 71144 ( +1568)
Mon 27 April 2020 5383 ( +25) 88416 ( +525) 72601 ( +1457)
Tue 28 April 2020 5405 ( +22) 88891 ( +474) 73949 ( +1348)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.